Wed. Jul 24th, 2019

Decision and Hockey Sticks, Half 1

Visitor sciency schist by David Middleton

Decision vs. Detection

Geoscientists within the oil & gasoline business spend a lot of our time integrating knowledge units of vastly totally different resolutions.  Geological knowledge, primarily properly logs, are very excessive decision (6 inches to 2 toes vertical decision).  Geophysical knowledge, primarily reflection seismic surveys, are of a lot decrease and extremely variable decision, depending on the seismic velocities of the rocks and the frequency content material of the seismic knowledge.  The rule of thumb is that a stratigraphic unit should be a minimum of as thick as one-quarter of the seismic wavelength (λ/four) to be resolved.

Determine 1a. Seismic wavelength vs velocity for 10, 25, 50 and 100 Hz dominant frequencies. (SEG Wiki)

Thinner beds could be detected, however not resolved.  The identical precept applies to regular faults.  If the throw (vertical offset) is a minimum of λ/four, the fault could be resolved and the throw could be precisely estimated from the seismic knowledge. If the throw is lower than λ/four, the very best I can decide is that a fault might be current.

Determine 1b. Seismic expression of a traditional fault at λ/16, λ/Eight, λ/four, λ/2 and λ. (SEG Wiki)

Once we combine geological and geophysical knowledge, we don’t simply splice the properly log onto a seismic profile.   We convert the properly logs into an artificial seismogram.  That is most successfully completed utilizing sonic and density logs.

Determine 2. Artificial Seismogram (AAPG Wiki)

The sonic and density logs are used to calculate acoustic impedance and a mirrored image coefficient collection (RC).  The RC is convolved with a seismic wavelet, usually extracted from the seismic knowledge close to the properly.  The artificial seismic traces (three panels on the correct) can then be straight in comparison with the seismic profile.  The decision distinction is kind of giant.  The trough-to-trough interval on the seismic pulse under is about 150 m.

Determine three. Schematic comparability or a properly log and a seismic pulse with a wavelength of 150 m. (College of Maryland)

How Does This Relate to Local weather “Science”

Sign concept and sign processing rules apply to all indicators, not simply seismic knowledge. A sign is a time-variant sequence of numbers. Virtually all temperature, carbon dioxide and sea degree reconstructions make use of most of the identical knowledge processing strategies as seismic knowledge processing. Deconvolution is especially important to ice core carbon dioxide chronologies. Typically the sign processing strategies are correctly employed. Van Hoof et al., 2005 demonstrated that the ice core CO2 knowledge characterize a low-frequency, century to multi-century transferring common of previous atmospheric CO2 ranges. They basically generated the equal of an artificial seismogram from the stomata chronology and tied it to the ice core.

Determine four. Panel A is stomatal frequency curve. Panel B is the D47 Antarctic ice core. The dashed line on Panel B is the “artificial” ice core generated from the stomatal frequency curve. (Van Hoof et al., 2005)

From my geological perspective, most local weather “hockey sticks” are the results of the improper integration of excessive decision instrumental knowledge (akin to properly logs) and decrease decision proxy knowledge (akin to reflection seismic knowledge).  Many of those hockey sticks seem to have been the results of a careless, if not reckless, disregard of fundamental sign processing rules.

Temperature Reconstruction Hockey Sticks

Determine 5. “Mike’s Nature Trick” Older is towards the left.

Some of the egregious violations of sign processing rules is the technology of local weather reconstruction “hockey sticks” by means of variations of “Mike’s Nature Trick.”

Within the aftermath of the “Climategate” scandal, Penn State carried out an “investigation” of Mike’s Nature Trick.   The Penn State whitewash was ludicrous…

After cautious consideration of all of the proof and related supplies, the inquiry committee discovering is that there exists no credible proof that Dr. Mann had or has ever engaged in, or participated in, straight or not directly, any actions with an intent to suppress or to falsify knowledge.

RA-10 Inquiry Report

It could actually’t be confirmed that he meant to suppress or falsify inconvenient knowledge. It’s totally attainable that he unintentionally devised a technique to suppress or falsify inconvenient knowledge.

This bit right here was laughable…

Actually on the contrary, in situations which were centered upon by some as indicating falsification of information, for instance in using a “trick” to control the information, that is defined as a dialogue amongst Dr. Jones and others together with Dr. Mann about how greatest to place collectively a graph for a World Meteorological Group (WMO) report. They weren’t falsifying knowledge; they had been making an attempt to assemble an comprehensible graph for individuals who weren’t consultants within the discipline. The so-called “trick”1 was nothing greater than a statistical technique used to carry two or extra totally different sorts of information units collectively in a respectable trend by a method that has been reviewed by a broad array of friends within the discipline. 

RA-10 Inquiry Report

Probably the most benign attainable interpretation of the “trick” is that they edited a part of Keith Briffa’s reconstruction as a result of the tree ring chronology confirmed that the 1930s to early 1940′s had been hotter than the late 1990′s. So, they simply substituted the instrumental file for the tree ring chronology.  Within the non-public sector, this type of conduct isn’t benign… It’s grounds for instant termination or worse.

I suppose that there isn’t a proof that they did this with intent to deceive.  Nevertheless, the truth that they known as it “Mike’s nature trick” positive makes it seem to be this type of factor was customary working process.

Taking a set of information that exhibits that the 1930′s had been hotter than the 1990′s and utilizing one other knowledge set to reverse that relationship will not be bringing “two or extra totally different sorts of information units collectively in a respectable trend.” It’s a complete bastardization of the information.

To see an instance of “Mike’s Nature Trick,” go right here… Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and world floor temperature variations over the previous two millennia 

Click on this… EIV Temperature Reconstructions

Open up any of the **cru_eiv_composite.csv or **had_eiv_composite.csv recordsdata. All of them splice the excessive frequency instrumental knowledge into the low frequency proxy knowledge. To Mann’s credit score,  he a minimum of paperwork this one sufficient to kind it out.

This assertion from their PNAS paper is completely unsupported by proxy reconstructions… “Latest heat seems anomalous for a minimum of the previous 1,300 years whether or not or not tree-ring knowledge are used. If tree-ring knowledge are used, the conclusion could be prolonged to a minimum of the previous 1,700 years.”

The anomalous nature of the “current heat” is totally depending on the “difficult” use of the instrumental knowledge. He didn’t use any proxy knowledge post-1850. The eivrecondescription file states “Word: values from 1850-2006AD are instrumental knowledge”.

This picture from Mann’s 2008 paper implies that the entire reconstructions are typically settlement concerning the declare that the “current heat seems anomalous for a minimum of the previous 1,300 years”…

Determine 6. “Spaghetti” graph from Mann et al., 2008. Older is towards the left.

By cluttering up the picture with many reconstructions and plastering the instrumental file onto finish of the graph, it’s not possible to see any particulars.

Listed here are Mann (Cru_EIV), Moberg, 2005, Christiansen & Ljungqvist 2012 (un-smoothed) Ljungqvist 2010 and Esper 2002 (low frequency)…

Determine 7. Muddle can work each methods. Older is towards the left.

Zoomed in on post-1800 with HadCRUT4 NH added:

Determine Eight. Older is towards the left.

The Trendy Warming solely seems anomalous due to the upper decision of the instrumental file and its place on the tail-end of the time collection.

Ljungqvist (2010) clearly defined the issue with straight evaluating instrumental knowledge to proxy reconstructions.

The amplitude of the reconstructed temperature variability on centennial time-scales exceeds zero.6°C. This reconstruction is the primary to indicate a definite Roman Heat Interval c. AD 1-300, reaching as much as the 1961-1990 imply temperature degree, adopted by the Darkish Age Chilly Interval c. AD 300-800. The Medieval Heat Interval is seen c. AD 800–1300 and the Little Ice Age is clearly seen c. AD 1300-1900, adopted by a speedy temperature enhance within the twentieth century. The very best common temperatures within the reconstruction are encountered within the mid to late tenth century and the bottom within the late seventeenth century. Decadal imply temperatures appear to have reached or exceeded the 1961-1990 imply temperature degree throughout substantial elements of the Roman Heat Interval and the Medieval Heat Interval. The temperature of the final 20 years, nonetheless, is presumably larger than throughout any earlier time prior to now two millennia, though that is solely seen within the instrumental temperature knowledge and never within the multi-proxy reconstruction itself.

[…]

The proxy reconstruction itself doesn’t present such an unprecedented warming however we should contemplate that only some information used within the reconstruction lengthen into the 1990s. However, a really cautious interpretation of the extent of heat since AD 1990 in comparison with that of the height warming in the course of the Roman Heat Interval and the Medieval Heat Interval is strongly prompt.

[…]

The amplitude of the temperature variability on multi-decadal to centennial time-scales reconstructed right here ought to presumably be thought-about to be the minimal of the true variability on these time-scales.

Ljungqvist, 2010

Determine 9. Ljungqvist demonstrated that the trendy warming had not unambiguously exceeded the vary of pure variability. The daring black dashed line is the instrumental file. I added the pink traces to mirror the margin of error of the proxy knowledge relative to the instrumental knowledge. Older is towards the left.

Direct comparisons of the the trendy instrumental file to the older proxy reconstructions are usually not strong as a result of the proxy knowledge are of a lot decrease decision. The proxy knowledge point out the “minimal of the true variability on these time-scales.” The instrumental knowledge are depicting one thing nearer to precise variability.

The proxy knowledge lack the excessive frequency part of the sign.  When the excessive frequency part of a sign is filtered out, it attenuates the amplitude.

Determine 10. Sine wave with 10-pt smoothing common utilized. Word the discount in amplitude because of filtering and  smoothing. (Wooden for Timber) Older is towards the left.

The direct comparability of instrumental knowledge to proxy knowledge turns into much more problematic when the file size is prolonged past 2,000 years.

Determine 11. Holocene Local weather Reconstruction, Andy Could WUWT. Older is towards the correct.

The supposedly “4 warmest years on file” have occurred about 300 years after the coldest century of the previous 100 centuries.  This might solely be described as a “local weather disaster” or “local weather emergency” by somebody who was completely blind to fundamental scientific rules, notably Quaternary geology and sign processing.  It’s truly a helluva loads higher than simply about some other attainable evolution of Earth’s “local weather.”

The longer the file size of the reconstruction, the extra essential the consistency of the temporal decision turns into.

“Consistency of the temporal decision” implies that the decision of the older proxies are per the current proxies. Temporal decision is a operate of the sampling interval…

We imagine the better supply of error in these reconstructions is within the proxy choice. As documented on this collection, a few of the unique 73 proxies are affected by decision points that disguise important climatic occasions and a few are affected by native circumstances that don’t have any regional or world significance. Others cowl brief time spans that don’t cowl the 2 most essential climatic options of the Holocene, the Little Ice Age and the Holocene Climatic Optimum.

[…]

We additionally prevented proxies with lengthy pattern intervals (better than 130 years) as a result of they have a tendency to cut back the decision of the reconstruction and so they dampen (“common out”) essential particulars. The smallest local weather cycle is roughly 61 to 64 years, the so-called “stadium wave,” and we need to try to get near seeing its affect. On this easy reconstruction, we now have tried to handle these points.

Andy Could WUWT.

This can be a desk of the entire “used” proxies. They’ve pretty constant temporal decision. They’ve lengthy file lengths and most, if not all, cowl the Holocene Climatic Optimum and Little Ice Age, the warmest and coldest climatic phases of the Holocene. It’s about as near “apples and apples” you may get with a >10,000-yr world temperature reconstruction. Andy’s proxies have a mean decision of 75 yrs and a mean file size of 11,697 yrs with low customary deviations (by proxy collection requirements). There isn’t a important pattern of degrading decision with time, as happens in most proxy reconstructions.

Determine 12. Temporal decision (left axis) and file size (proper axis). Older is towards the correct.

Andy’s reconstruction demonstrates that the nadir of the Little Ice Age was the coldest climatic interval of the Holocene. This can be a characteristic of each non-hockey stick reconstruction and even most hockey stick reconstructions, together with the serially flawed Marcott et al., 2013.  It additionally demonstrates that the trendy warming is inconspicuous relative to the Holocene’s pervasive millennial-scale local weather sign (Bohling &Davis, 2001).

In case you open the Reconstruction References spreadsheet and go to the far proper column (Feedback), Andy notes whether or not the proxy was “used” or explains why it was rejected. The three commonest causes for rejecting proxy collection had been:

Coarse decision (denoted as “decision too huge”)Not previous enoughNot Younger sufficient

Andy may have spliced the instrumental file onto the tip of this and made a hockey stick… However that might be fraudulent anyplace outdoors of educational and authorities “science”. It’s akin to splicing a properly log right into a seismic line and calling it an anomaly.

Relating to Marcott, the authors even state that their Holocene reconstruction can’t be straight in comparison with instrumental knowledge because of decision variations… But they achieve this anyway.

Q: What do paleotemperature reconstructions present in regards to the temperature of the final 100 years?

A: Our world paleotemperature reconstruction features a so-called “uptick” in temperatures in the course of the 20th-century. Nevertheless, within the paper we make the purpose that this specific characteristic is of shorter period than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging process, and that it’s based mostly on only some accessible paleo-reconstructions of the kind we used. Thus, the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack will not be statistically strong, can’t be thought-about consultant of worldwide temperature adjustments, and due to this fact will not be the idea of any of our conclusions. Our major conclusions are based mostly on a comparability of the long run paleotemperature adjustments from our reconstruction with the well-documented temperature adjustments which have occurred during the last century, as documented by the instrumental file. Though not a part of our examine, high-resolution paleoclimate knowledge from the previous ~130 years have been compiled from varied geological archives, and ensure the final options of warming pattern over this time interval (Anderson, D.M. et al., 2013, Geophysical Analysis Letters, v. 40, p. 189-193; http://www.agu.org/journals/pip/gl/2012GL054271-pip.pdf).

Q: Is the speed of worldwide temperature rise during the last 100 years quicker than at any time in the course of the previous 11,300 years?

A: Our examine didn’t straight deal with this query as a result of the paleotemperature information utilized in our examine have a temporal decision of ~120 years on common, which precludes us from inspecting variations in charges of change occurring inside a century. Different components additionally contribute to smoothing the proxy temperature indicators contained in most of the information we used, similar to organisms burrowing by means of deep-sea mud, and chronological uncertainties within the proxy information that are likely to easy the indicators when compositing them right into a globally averaged reconstruction. We confirmed that no temperature variability is preserved in our reconstruction at cycles shorter than 300 years, 50% is preserved at 1000-year time scales, and almost all is preserved at 2000-year durations and longer. Our Monte-Carlo evaluation accounts for these sources of uncertainty to yield a strong (albeit smoothed) world file. Any small “upticks” or “downticks” in temperature that final lower than a number of hundred years in our compilation of paleoclimate knowledge are most likely not strong, as said within the paper.

Actual Local weather

If the “the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack will not be statistically strong”… Why was it included within the publication? The fashionable instrumental file can be a single knowledge level on the decision of Marcott’s reconstruction.

Why does this matter?

So, what wouldn’t it imply, if the reconstructions point out a bigger (Esper et al., 2002; Pollack and Smerdon, 2004; Moberg et al., 2005) or smaller (Jones et al., 1998; Mann et al., 1999) temperature amplitude? We propose that the previous state of affairs, i.e. enhanced variability throughout pre-industrial occasions, would lead to a redistribution of weight in direction of the function of pure components in forcing temperature adjustments, thereby comparatively devaluing the influence of anthropogenic emissions and affecting future predicted situations. If that seems to be the case, agreements such because the Kyoto protocol that intend to cut back emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, can be much less efficient than thought.

Esper et al., 2005

It issues as a result of the one strategy to straight evaluate the instrumental knowledge to the pre-industrial proxy knowledge is the filter the instrumental knowledge right down to the decision of the proxy knowledge.  This results in local weather reconstructions with “enhanced variability throughout pre-industrial occasions” and “lead to a redistribution of weight in direction of the function of pure components in forcing temperature adjustments, thereby comparatively devaluing the influence of anthropogenic emissions and affecting future predicted situations.”

It issues as a result of the advocates of the Anthropocene as a geologic epoch are counting on the Marcott hockey stick.

Determine 13. Run Away! The Anthropocene Has Arrived!!! Older is towards the left.

It issues as a result of hockey sticks are getting used to justify coverage adjustments, carbon taxes and destroy particular person liberty and prosperity.

Many of the asserted proof that current local weather adjustments deviate from the norms of the Holocene are equally per being the results of variations within the decision of paleo-climate knowledge and instrumental information.

Half deux will deal with carbon dioxide and sea degree hockey sticks.

References

Anklin, M., J. Schwander, B. Stauffer, J. Tschumi, A. Fuchs, J. M. Barnola, and D. Raynaud (1997), “CO2record between 40 and eight kyr B.P. from the Greenland Ice Core Undertaking ice core,” J. Geophys. Res., 102(C12), 26539–26545, doi: 10.1029/97JC00182.

Christiansen, B. and F.C. Ljungqvist. 2012. “The additional-tropical Northern Hemisphere temperature within the final two millennia: reconstructions of low-frequency variability”. Local weather of the Previous, Vol. Eight, pp. 765-786. www.clim-past.internet/Eight/765/2012/ doi:10.5194/cp-Eight-765-2012

Davis, J. C., and G. C. Bohling. “The seek for patterns in ice-core temperature curves. 2001, in L. C. Gerhard, W. E. Harrison, and B. M. Hanson, eds., Geological views of worldwide local weather change, p. 213–229.

Esper, J., E.R. Prepare dinner, and F.H. Schweingruber. 2002.  “Low-Frequency Alerts in Lengthy Tree-Ring Chronologies for  Reconstructing Previous Temperature Variability”.  Science, Quantity 295, Quantity 5563, 22 March 2002.

Esper, J., R.J.S. Wilson,  D.C. Frank, A. Moberg, H. Wanner, & J. Luterbacher.  2005.  “Local weather: previous ranges and future adjustments”.  Quaternary Science Critiques 24: 2164-2166.

Etheridge, D.M., L.P. Steele, R.L. Langenfelds, R.J. Francey, J.-M. Barnola and V.I. Morgan. 1998. “Historic CO2 information from the Regulation Dome DE08, DE08-2, and DSS ice cores”. In Tendencies: A Compendium of Knowledge on World Change. Carbon Dioxide Data Evaluation Heart, Oak Ridge Nationwide Laboratory, U.S. Division of Power, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A.

Finsinger, W. and F. Wagner-Cremer. “Stomatal-based inference fashions for reconstruction of atmospheric CO2 focus: a technique evaluation utilizing a calibration and validation strategy”. The Holocene 19,5 (2009) pp. 757–764

Kouwenberg, LLR. 2004. “Utility of conifer needles within the reconstruction of Holocene CO2 ranges”. PhD Thesis. Laboratory of Palaeobotany and Palynology, College of Utrecht.

Ljungqvist, F.C. 2009. N. Hemisphere Further-Tropics 2,000yr Decadal Temperature Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Knowledge Heart for Paleoclimatology Knowledge Contribution Sequence # 2010-089. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.

Ljungqvist, F.C. 2010. “A brand new reconstruction of temperature variability within the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere over the past two millennia”. Geografiska Annaler: Bodily Geography, Vol. 92 A(three), pp. 339-351, September 2010. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-459.2010.00399.x

Mann, Michael,  Zhihua Zhang, Malcolm Ok Hughes, Raymond Bradley, Sonya Ok Miller, Scott Rutherford, & Fenbiao Ni. (2008). “Proxy-based Reconstructions of Hemispheric and World Floor Temperature Variations over the Previous Two Millennia”. Proceedings of the Nationwide Academy of Sciences of america of America. 105. 13252-7. 10.1073/pnas.0805721105.

McElwain et al., 2002. “Stomatal proof for a decline in atmospheric CO2 focus in the course of the Youthful Dryas stadial: a comparability with Antarctic ice core information”. J. Quaternary Sci., Vol. 17 pp. 21–29. ISSN 0267-8179

Moberg, A., D.M. Sonechkin, Ok. Holmgren, N.M. Datsenko & W. Karlén. 2005. “Extremely variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low-and high-resolution proxy knowledge”. Nature, Vol. 433, No. 7026, pp. 613-617, 10 February 2005.

Van Hoof, Thomas, Karsten A. Kaspers, Friederike Wagner-Cremer, R.S.W. Wal, Wolfram Kürschner & Henk Visscher. (2005). “Atmospheric CO 2 in the course of the 13th century AD: reconciliation of information from ice core measurements and stomatal frequency evaluation”. Tellus B. 57. 10.3402/tellusb.v57i4.16555.

For extra references, see these Watts Up With That posts:

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