Sat. Sep 21st, 2019

Inside The Sausage Manufacturing facility

Visitor Publish by Willis Eschenbach

There’s an outdated saying that “Legal guidelines are like sausages. It’s higher to not see both one being made” … and I worry the identical is true for a lot an excessive amount of of what passes for local weather “science” as of late.

Nevertheless, ignoring such smart recommendation, I’ve taken one other look below the hood on the knowledge from the abysmal Nature Communications paper entitled “Discrepancies in scientific authority and media visibility of local weather change scientists and contrarians.” My earlier evaluation of the paper is right here on WUWT.

In that article, it says that the “Supply Knowledge information” for the article are positioned right here. That appeared hopeful, so I checked out that web page. There, they are saying:

We doc the media visibility and local weather change analysis achievements of two teams of people representing a few of  probably the most distinguished figures of their respective domains: 386  local weather change contrarians (CCC)  juxtaposed with 386 skilled local weather change scientists (CCS). These knowledge had been collected from the Media Cloud undertaking (MC), an open knowledge undertaking hosted by the MIT Middle for Civic Media and the Berkman Klein Middle for Web & Society at Harvard College. 

Enclosed are uncooked MC knowledge and parsed media article knowledge information obtained from two sorts of MC database queries: 

(i) ~105,000 media articles derived from the MC search question ”local weather AND change AND international AND warming”; 

(ii) 772 particular person knowledge information, for every member of the CCC and CCS teams, every derived from a single MC search question ”MemberFullName AND local weather”. 

Effectively hooray, that sounded nice, that the uncooked knowledge was “enclosed”. I used to be even happier to see that they’d offered the pc code they’d used, viz:

Supply code: offered in a Mathematica (v11.1) pocket book (MediaSource_Annotated_ALL_2256.nb utilizing MediaSource_Annotated_ALL_2256.txt) reproduces the subpanels for Fig. 5 within the following analysis article

Excellent, I assumed, I’ve the whole lot I want to duplicate the research—the complete code and knowledge as used to do the calculations! That hardly occurs … however then I seen the caveat on the high of the web page:

Knowledge Information: This dataset is non-public for peer evaluation and might be launched on January 1, 2020.

Grrr … these jokers write a “scientific” paper after which they don’t launch the code or the information for six months after publication? That’s not science, that a buncha guys engaged in what we used to name “hitchhiking to Chicago” accompanied by the suitable obscene one-handed gesture with the thumb prolonged…

Undeterred, I went to check out the “Mediacloud” that they referred to. It’s an attention-grabbing dataset of a whole lot of 1000’s of articles, and I’ll probably make use of it sooner or later. But it surely seems that there was an enormous drawback … you may’t simply enter e.g. “Willis Eschenbach” AND local weather as their internet web page fatuously claims. You additionally must specify simply which sources you’re looking, in addition to the date vary you’re all in favour of … and their data web page says nothing about both one.

Now, in my checklist of media mentions within the Supplementary Data from their paper, there are solely 40 outcomes … however after I searched the complete Mediacloud dataset from 2001-01-01 to the current for my title plus “local weather” as they are saying that they did, I received over 500 outcomes … say what?

I’ve written to the corresponding writer listed on that internet web page for clarification on this matter, however I’m not optimistic in regards to the pace of his response … he might produce other issues on his thoughts in the meanwhile.

Pissed off at Mediacloud, I returned to the paper’s knowledge. In whole there are over 60,000 media mentions between all the 386 of us who’re recognized as “contrarians”. I made a decision to see which web sites received probably the most mentions. Listed here are the highest twenty, together with the variety of occasions they had been referenced:                                                                   426                                               334

There are some actual howlers in simply these high twenty. First, as close to as I can inform probably the most referenced web site, the native California newspaper “Laguna Seaside Impartial” with 6,279 mentions, doesn’t comprise any of the 386 listed names. Completely bogus, ineffective, and distorts the leads to each course.

Subsequent, DeSmogBlog has 827 mentions … all of which is able to in all probability be strongly unfavourable. In spite of everything, that’s their schtick, unfavourable opinions of “contrarians”. I’ll return to this query of unfavourable and constructive mentions in a second.

Then there’s “” with 411 mentions, which is a lifeless hyperlink. No one dwelling, the web site just isn’t “pining for the fjords” as they are saying.

And “” appears to be an aggregator which regularly references a research or information article greater than as soon as. Right here’s an instance of such double-counting, from one particular person’s checklist of media mentions:,en,Firedoglake,809,247540225,CNBC Caught Soliciting Op-Ed Calling Local weather Change A ‘Hoax’,2014-6-30                  ,en,,58791,247551206,CNBC Caught Soliciting Op-Ed Calling Local weather Change A ‘Hoax’,2014-6-30″

Be aware that each of those hyperlinks reference the identical underlying doc, “CNBC Caught Soliciting Op-Ed Calling Local weather Change A ‘Hoax’”, however the doc is positioned on two completely different web sites. I didn’t have the center or the time to learn the way usually that occurred … however the instance above was from the very first particular person I checked out who had of their checklist of mentions.

(I suppose I shouldn’t be stunned by the abysmal lack of high quality management on their checklist of internet sites, as a result of in spite of everything these authors are clearly religious Thermageddians … however nonetheless, these egregious errors had been an actual shock to me. My highschool science instructor would have had a match if we’d achieved that.)

Subsequent, as I discussed above, that checklist I used to be struck by the very fact that there’s a enormous distinction between being talked about on say DeSmogBlog, which is able to nearly assuredly be a unfavourable evaluation, and being talked about on ClimateDepot, which is more likely to be constructive in nature. However how may I quantify that?

To reply the query, I went again to Mediacloud. They’ve a few thousand web sites which they’ve categorized as both Left, Middle Left, Middle, Middle Proper, or Proper. So I made a decision to see what number of occasions every class of internet sites was talked about within the 60,000 media mentions for contrarians … listed here are these numbers.

Left:             6628Middle Left:    4051Middle:           2241Middle Proper: 2056Proper:           4582Complete Left:     10679Complete Proper:     6638

As you may see, there are about 50% extra mentions on left-leaning web sites than on right-leaning … so it seems fairly attainable that, quite than “contrarians” getting extra good publicity than mainstream local weather scientists because the paper claims, per their calculations “contrarians” are getting extra unhealthy publicity than mainstream climentarians.

Lastly, earlier than I left the topic and the web site behind, I used Mediacloud to see how a few different folks fared. Recall that every one 396 of us “contrarians” garnered about 60,000 media mentions between us.

I first took a have a look at the media mentions of St. Greta of Thunberg, the Patron Saint of the Simply Led. Since she burst on the scene just a few months in the past, she has gotten at least 36,517 mentions within the media, about 60% of the entire of all of the “contrarians” listed of their research.

I then seemed on the man who has made extra money out of local weather hysteria than any residing human being, the multimillionaire Local weather Goracle, Mr. Al Gore himself. A search of Mediacloud for ‘”Al Gore” AND local weather’ returned a complete of 92,718 hits.

So whereas the clueless authors of this paper are so involved about how a lot air time we “contrarians” get, between them simply Al Gore and Greta Thunberg alone received twice the variety of media mentions as all of us local weather contrarians mixed ….

Gotta say, each time I have a look at this heap of steaming bovine waste merchandise it will get worse … however hopefully, this would be the final time I’ve to take a look at how this explicit sausage was made.


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